Subject: Banlist Predictions Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:24 am
It's one of these times of the year again. Yes for all yugioh players there is a period similar to reverse thanksgiving, every six months, where most of them go out of their ways to bitch about everything that seems at least slightly wrong, not neccessarily limited to yugioh, sometimes about life in general. That is the banlist period.
I hope that I don't have to bring back last banlist's prediction for the people that decide to go crazy or show how horribly butthurt they are from the format in public again, it has been happening on enough blogs already actually...
So while at it I'll put out some serious ones.
Let's start from the basics. Banlist is made for the OCG, if there is an issue in the TCG it gets a slap on the wrist save from emergency situations of major screw ups, but at this point of the game the only way to get a real major screw up deserving a fix for the TCG is if there was a TCG exclusive spell card that said "You win the game". The reason for that is how far all decks have advanced by now and the relative power of the game, a deck can pull ahead but not that far.
Now let's say another basic. Konami likes money. They wouldn't be running a business if they weren't in for the profit. So ORCS will probably not be hit and even if it is it will be a slap on the wrist so it will still be selling.
Last basic is that you hit what is actually good. Not what you think is good. Not what you think people think is good. Not what you once heard from a homeless person that looked like a fortune teller, is good. What is actually good with actual consistent tournament results to back it up. So before you say Lavalval Chain banned, go pay shriek a visit. Same with fusion heroes, I was laughing my ass off at people who were saying gate heroes are a top tier OCG deck and was going to rape in the TCG, because they were wrong, ignorant and horribly wrong. They were also wrong.
Now by analyzing the OCG results we get Inzektor finishing in first place Agent and Rabbit variants in second, while it should be noted agents, and to be precise T.G. Agent Angel, dominated the better part of the format. Then we have Hero beat variants, just a bit away from the above 2 by my estimate. Then we have less frequent appearences from karakuri, dark world (at the start of the format they would both appear more often however), ninja jurrac, laval, wind-ups, dragunity and then there also were at less frequency than even those decks like plant synchro, junk doppel, chaos, twillight, zombie etc. but not a real issue. I may or may not be forgetting other basic ones.
And on this side we have as TCG exclusive the tour tengu synchro, tour and tengu as problem cards, rabbit boosted by the exclusives as well as dark world, and wind-ups boosted by at least 4 tcg exclusives, but they are here just 1 month before the banlist spoilers come out so they'll get away with their TCG success.
Inzektors will not be getting hit hard in their main lineup, they may however lose non-archetypal support. If they do get hit in their main lineup, I predict it will be hornets to appease the people while leaving inzektors practically intact since all you do is add a number of armageddon knights/mystic tomatoes/etc. equal to the number of Hornets you lost and you have the exact same deck except from late game but that's pointless.
Agents have sticked around for a while and have outlived their profit, so that could be the time to get some hits, perhaps it could be Hyperion and Earth to 2 or either one of them to 1.
As for rabbit, I'll take a wild, wild guess and say, perhaps Laggia to 1? There are many variants still fresh and in the TCG rabbits make houses out of the money they've taken and are still good business. With Laggia at 1 you can still play yugioh, especially in the TCG where you can just bring Laggia once and use Dolkka for more control (or even that 1 mained tour bus to make sure your leviair brings you laggia again), while in the OCG they can always use Emeral. Another possible option could be rabbit to 2. When it comes to the TCG, tour into sangan can get you rabbit, while part of the OCG has already shifted over to hybrids to have consistency without rabbit being a neccessity to win (in fact there are hybrid ninja jurrac builds already topping with 2 rabbits). And of course there is always Gold Sarcophagus. What Rabbit at 2 mostly means is much less chances for first turn rabbit, which should be hitting versions of the deck, especially the TCG straightforward ones, and is actually more healthy for the game. On the other hand, rabbit at 1 would kill the vast majority of competitive rabbit decks so I can't really see it. But who knows.
Gemini beat is old, too old, and is now seeing a lot of play. Perhaps the gemini beat parts will be hit to make way for the hero support that keeps coming out. Or it will be left again untouched, it's an anti-meta deck really so if it's successful it's only because it has good matchups in the top tier, which not entirelly relevant to the deck itself but the format in general.
Moving right along away from the top 3+1, I predict Wind-Ups won't be getting hit. First of all they have been in the OCG but not as much as Agents and Rabbit, and of course not as much as Inzektors. Secondly, the loop is all they have going for them, if they bring rat or zenmaighty at 1, as I hear lately, the deck is dead competitivelly, end of story. Yes, you can say you can play wind-ups competitivelly with 1 rat, but you can't, so don't say it. If I had to describe why they are so low in the competitive play of the OCG though, it would be because they get killed by whatever people have put in their main or side to battle inzektors, they had the bad luck to be released alongside inzektors, be second to them and subsequently be trampled over because of them. Of course they got all the support Kevin could think of in the TCG so it won't be the same story here. With 4 TCG exclusives backing them up we could be seeing the new sabers, impervious to banlists.
Ninjas have been in jurrac hybrids but they will be left untouched, they are new and they are not that competitive. Karakuri is old enough to get hit however, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose a synchro or two to the semi-limited/limited list. Or perhaps a ninishi, or a merchant, or whatever makes them tick, can't tell. Dark Worlds started strong at the end of last format, kept some momentum for the start of this, but now are falling on their faces. That being said they could receive a kind slap on the wrist I will be explaining below. Laval is again used because of a new card mostly, and is an interesting deck. People cry for rekindling to be hit, but it won't be easy. They could however do a rekindling to 2 finally, if nothing else to appease the raging masses of card game players. I feel dragunity will be affected by the other changes in the banlist instead, like they always have been.
Will they hit the chaos, plant and zombie variants? Kinda unlikely, again it seems like it will be a slap on the wrist.
Now I know you have seen me say a lot about slaps on the wrist and not something get really hurt in this banlist. The reason for that is because the top deck in the OCG is a new deck, it's hard to hit which means it will continue strong so to have a balanced format other decks must continue strong as well.
Of course now we have another part of the list, the non-archtype cards. One prediction I have here is Card Destruction. It could be the hit people ask to be given to Dark Worlds and it is of course one of the strong spell cards of the game, useful in more than one decks, albeit not top tier apart from dark world, of course. It may be the time for Card Destruction to join the other power spell cards that keep bouncing in and out of the banlist for this format.
A kind of wild prediction again is Dark Armed Dragon. That is for some reasons. One, it could serve as the slap to Inzektors' wrists as the non-archtype support they will be hitting. Dark Armed Dragon and Inzektors go together so it will be a hit to an additional power card they have. Additionally Dark Armed Dragon is indeed a power card, so it wouldn't be weird to see him as well start hopping in and out of the banlist starting this format. There is one additional reason for this though.
If the above occurs, Sangan and Witch of the Black Forest. If they try to do something for the TCG directly while adding a bit for variety we could be seeing those 2 switch places. Witch of the Black Forest has been out of the game for a while now, and we know it does not have the power that got it banned anymore in the current game. The biggest issue, in my opinion, with the card is that it can search Dark Armed Dragon, while being DARK itself, but with DAD banned that issue could be taken care of. Additionally, Tour Bus has been released as an alternative buddy for Tour Guide, so perhaps they will decide to have 1 "Sangan" in the format, instead of having 4. Yes, I am aware WotBF can also search Norleas, the monarchs, Beast King Barbaros and Dark Simorgh (AND TYLER THE GREAT WARRIOR!), but it doesn't seem it would unbalance the format that much. Besides, the OCG already has Lavalval Chain if they are so desperate about getting a monster.
There is a good chance Black Luster Soldier - Envoy of the Beggining will be once again banned, if for no other reason then because it's everywhere. Book of moon may be joining the semi-limited cards to help battle some of the top tier decks, while there is a chance Pot of Duality may be joining them. Not because it is harmful for the game, but because again it is overused, which again would suck since increasing consistency in many decks will be a bit harder, but 2 should be fine really, it's just the fact that when you auto-include 3 cards in your deck, it means you are potentially using less new cards, so konami doesn't like it. And I do wish fishborg will be back but it probably wont happen since they made fishborg number 2... damn them... We may also see foolish burial or allure of darkness in the random (not so much, non-archetypal inzektor support) stuff that hit the banned list. If we do, one of them of course, not both. If I had to predict a generally used extra deck monster to be hit by the banlist this time, it would be again a weird prediction, but I'd put Leviair in there.
Now, as to what you don't want to see change but you just don't know it yet.
1 is Solemn Warning. Solemn Warning is perhaps the only thing you can use to hit an inzektor combo in your regular trap lineup along with power cards like Solemn Judgment and Torrential Tribute. Then goes book of moon and then veiler in the mainly used cards. You will be loosing a good ally in the battle vs inzektors, and while it may not mean as much in the TCG, it is the top deck in the OCG. And speaking of Inzektors:
Royal Oppression. Inzektors dgaf about Royal Oppression, it will be a main Inzektor card if it is unbanned and to add strength to the dominating OCG deck is nothing less of weird for a banlist. Not to mention that if you are first turn laggia'd + oppression'd it's time to scoop. Six Sams used it, sabers used it, why shouldn't rabbit use it. Or Dark World for that matter, for us TCG'ers.
Other than that I expect something crazy to happen as always, but that's ok, it keeps things fun, either practically or by seeing people bitch about it and laugh. Since veiler will get a reprint in ORCS: SE I am fine for the format, at least I can survive. I did think of staying out before that, without maxx c or veilers available, but now it is possible once again to adapt.
And remember, don't say things that will let people see more about you than what you would allow.
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:21 am
Hmm, I'm looking forward to the new banlist. I'm very curious about it.
I personally think BLS is way too OP, I think it'll be banned again. Since Konami is experimenting with banning and unbanning some cards, I think they might bring back Dark Magician of Chaos back at one. The OTK is now harder to pull off, since Mass Driver has been banned. It'll be a very OP card like BLS, but Konami likes to do weird stuff, so, who knows?
Odds of that happening aren't big of course, but speculating is fun. =) What do you think of it, Al?
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:36 am
AsianShadow wrote:
Maybe,idk.But check this video out.
That's again a prediction, which is as much of a prediction as all other predictions are predictions. Which means it has as much value as any other random prediction. And yes, I said prediction multiple times on purpose. The uploader himself says it's a prediction while naming his video 2012 march banlist leaked. Yeah, that's trustworthy...
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:43 am
My predictions.
banned bls sangan dad
limited: witch of the black forest. laggia hunter (just to get pepole t shut up even tough it wont make a diffrence since 1 is all you need). hornet (if there gonna hit zektors, if.) gemini spark
semi: mezuki plauge tour guide (this is reasonable, they will earn money well taking down a bit of its sack draw power).
unlimited: mali d-draw
these are some i want but wont happen.
semi: formula t.g dandy lonefire
basicly i want quasar format xD
anyway
opinion: they wont kill wind ups yet , they may give them, a slap on the wrist as al says. same with inzektors, to new, to much money to be made. i said the plauge , mali and d-draw just for old times tbh, be cool to see the destiny engine come back xD but theres a big chance its not gonna.
bls is broken as hell so i dont need to explain. sangan is now more broke because of tur guide. witch would be great this format. those anti meta beats have been around to long, time to slap them with gemini. laggia is just broke, but 1 will stop ppl whining, but with bus cming its easy t return it for use. hornet wont happen imo but if it does , 1 is all you need. mezuki , that basicly just me wanted t see more zombies tbh. tourguide, 2 is enough, and will also lower chance of opening it first turn, but it will still make money dad, if witch is back he needs to go.
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:19 am
I am going to save my remarks till the official ban list comes out just to save my dignity. I've lost way too much of it over things like these. Right, Al?
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:40 am
bakura normal wrote:
My predictions.
banned bls sangan dad
limited: witch of the black forest. laggia hunter (just to get pepole t shut up even tough it wont make a diffrence since 1 is all you need). hornet (if there gonna hit zektors, if.) gemini spark
semi: mezuki plauge tour guide (this is reasonable, they will earn money well taking down a bit of its sack draw power).
unlimited: mali d-draw
these are some i want but wont happen.
semi: formula t.g dandy lonefire
basicly i want quasar format xD
anyway
opinion: they wont kill wind ups yet , they may give them, a slap on the wrist as al says. same with inzektors, to new, to much money to be made. i said the plauge , mali and d-draw just for old times tbh, be cool to see the destiny engine come back xD but theres a big chance its not gonna.
bls is broken as hell so i dont need to explain. sangan is now more broke because of tur guide. witch would be great this format. those anti meta beats have been around to long, time to slap them with gemini. laggia is just broke, but 1 will stop ppl whining, but with bus cming its easy t return it for use. hornet wont happen imo but if it does , 1 is all you need. mezuki , that basicly just me wanted t see more zombies tbh. tourguide, 2 is enough, and will also lower chance of opening it first turn, but it will still make money dad, if witch is back he needs to go.
just my opiniong,
we wont see witch coming back too many other options (every monarch and others) which means DaD wouldnt be banned, tho i can see sangan going and they wont touch inzektors this banlist coz its new out, much like six sams. with that being said i'd say mezuki would be to two and mind control needs to go coz its sooo broken free monster pretty much esp with synchros and xyz. dont see em touching TGU coz if they ban sangan the TGU loses a little playability and they still make money, IMO debris should come back to two and monk to three(at this time its kinda a meh card)
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:41 am
Kimo Force wrote:
I am going to save my remarks till the official ban list comes out just to save my dignity. I've lost way too much of it over things like these. Right, Al?
Yep. And konami will definitelly kill inzektors and wind-ups, they will go all ballsy on us and say both in TCG and OCG "WE DON'T NEED YOUR MONEY, STOP BUYING OUR LATEST SET!"
When konami makes the banlist, they do it under 2 and only 2 criteria 1. Direct profit, meaning how much they make off their sets. For example if they devalue their entire set overnight obviously they'll sell less than a 10th of what they did before, which they might want to avoid, maybe, just maybe.
2. Customer satisfaction and service. Now we are all online players so many of you are not directly customers of konami, and as for myself I am no big buyer, so the only side of this you see is the state of the game. But there is another side to it. Here for example is a post by Kevin Tewart himself on a similar, card value and customer satisfaction matter, which will give some useful insight http://www.pojo.biz/board/showpost.php?p=23883417&postcount=341 Now you may hate the guy but what he is saying there has a point, and I am refering to the "exodia parts" part. While the only side of the game we see is the online moneyless play, there are people who often buy cards and have collections, bigger of smaller, of large value cards, and they too are konami's customers, in fact if we take smaller collections in account as well, they are their largest source of income, regardless of how many times you bring up people who buy a pack or two randomly or infrequently (packs aren't snacks that you take on a whim to taste to take those into account, they are actual parts of a game, you either play it or you don't). Now would those people be satisfied if the 3 hornets they paid 40$ each to get got a value of 5$ (basically garbage) overnight? Will those customers say "Yay! Konami made me lose 1000$ in 1 day! I love them and will buy every product they release from now on!" ? Additionally if konami instantly devalues a product it just released, would that give them enough trust for customers to buy their next product? I ask you guys, if you knew they had a policy to instantly bring down the value of their own products within a month of release, without of course reducing the price, would you be as eager to buy their next product? And yes, following such a policy of customer satisfaction may harm the health of the game by our standarts, but that is of much less importance. If their source of income desired an FTK format, an FTK format we would have, it is the regular "customer is always right" in the sense that if that is what they want to buy, then why the hell shouldn't we sell it?
Now I am not saying hornet and hunter banned has a 0% chance of happening, of course anything can happen, but if that did happen they would be nothing short of morons, who suck at their job and frankly are avoiding bankruptcy by large series of miracles.
And the most amazing thing is that all those predictions of "Hornet Banned, Rat and Zenmaighty limited, rabbit banned, tour guide limited" etc. are coming from people who know that much and mostly from irl players. Sometimes I wonder whether the internet is just a massive conspiracy with the sole purpose of trolling me, because if that is the case it succeeded...
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:53 am
Al-Bhed wrote:
And the most amazing thing is that all those predictions of "Hornet Banned, Rat and Zenmaighty limited, rabbit banned, tour guide limited" etc. are coming from people who know that much and mostly from irl players. Sometimes I wonder whether the internet is just a massive conspiracy with the sole purpose of trolling me, because if that is the case it succeeded...
Aww darn, he found out.
All jokes aside: I agree with you Al, but in that case, Konami would (I think) bring back some cards to other archetypes, in order for them to be able to compete with wind-ups and inzektors. Like mentioned before, Mezuki. I think there's a big chance it will be semi-limited.
Subject: Re: Banlist Predictions Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:56 am
Unforgiven Pretender wrote:
Al-Bhed wrote:
And the most amazing thing is that all those predictions of "Hornet Banned, Rat and Zenmaighty limited, rabbit banned, tour guide limited" etc. are coming from people who know that much and mostly from irl players. Sometimes I wonder whether the internet is just a massive conspiracy with the sole purpose of trolling me, because if that is the case it succeeded...
Aww darn, he found out.
All jokes aside: I agree with you Al, but in that case, Konami would (I think) bring back some cards to other archetypes, in order for them to be able to compete with wind-ups and inzektors. Like mentioned before, Mezuki. I think there's a big chance it will be semi-limited.
probs see psz back to two and monk to three, they wont touch anything new out atm, so we gotta compete, that would probs be why we wont see veiler or maxx"C" on the list either....if this happens totally going tele zombues :D
